注明

此部落格之内容,纯属个人的意见,只供参考和讨论,不可视为投资意见。如果根据此部落格之文章进行任何相关交易而蒙受任何亏损,本人一概不会负责。

PS:我刚申请了facebook/twitter Account,如果您也是facebook/twitter用户,对我的分享又有一点兴趣,请把我加入您的名单里吧。我的email是 pennysharehunter@gmail.com

2010年8月7日星期六

Goodwill

刚刚有人在论坛里提到Goodwill,这是我们常常在看报表是会看到的项目。其实我也不是很了解这在报表里起这怎样的作用。我便google了一下,顺道放到了我的部落格里,让一些像我一样一知半解的股民能一起学习。

股票金融中商誉(Goodwill)是什么意思,意义和翻译?: 

一家公司收购另一家公司时,所支付的代价超过被收购公司账面资产净值的部分,称之为商誉,是收购后集团资产负债表上资产方的一个项目。 若支付的代价低于账面资产净值,差额则称为负商誉(negative goodwill)。 收购方之所以会愿意付出较账面净值为高的收购代价,即之所以会有商誉,是因为收购方认为被收购公司的价值高于财务报表所反映的资产净值,这基本上有两种原因: (1)会计上的局限使财务报表无法完全反映公司有形资产的合理价值,如公司拥有的土地已大幅增值但尚未反映在报表上; (2)受会计标准所限,公司的无形资产(??例如受欢迎的品牌、优秀的员工及公司所建立的信誉等),无法反映在资产负债表上。会计标准会要求公司以合理的方式将商誉分期摊销至损益表(即将商誉作为非现金费用分期注销),或者是不用分期摊销,但要定期评估商誉是否还能反映收购回来的公司的价值,必要时减值或一次性注销。



取自
http://wenda.chinabaike.com/q/q112416.htm



是商誉,就是企业的诚信度、信誉,名声等,能给企业带来额外收益。属于无形资产的一种,就像品牌效应一样。能使企业升值。
就像海儿这个品牌就值530亿元(这个数字也在不断更新),这是品牌带来的资产,商誉也是如此 
取自
http://zhidao.baidu.com/question/2203454
英文解说
In the accounting sense, Goodwill can be thought of as a "premium" for buying a business. When one company buys another, the amount it pays is called the purchase price. Accountants take the purchase price and subtract it by a company's book  value. The difference is called Goodwill. For decades, when a company bought another company, it could use one of two accounting methods: pooling of interest or purchase. When the pooling of interest method is used, the balance sheets of the two businesses are combined and no goodwill is created. When the purchase method is used, the acquiring company will put the premium they paid for the other company on their balance sheet under the "Goodwill" category. Accounting rules require the goodwill be amortized over the course of 40 years. 

An Example of Balance Sheet Goodwill

What does that mean? Let's use McDonald's and Wendy's as an example since most people are familiar with them. McDonald's Earnings: $1,977,300,000 Shares Outstanding: 1.29 Billion (You don't need McDonald's other information for this example) Wendy's Book Value: $1,082,424,000 Book Value per Share: $10.3482 Shares Outstanding: 104.6 Million Earnings: $169,648,000 Say McDonald's decided to buy all of Wendy's stock using the purchase method. Wendy's has a book value of $10.3482 per share, yet is trading at $32 per share. If McDonald's were to pay the current market price, they would spend a total of $3,347,200,000 (104.6 million shares x $36 per share). To keep this example simple, we are going to assume the shareholders of Wendy's approved the merger for cash. McDonald's would mail a check to the Wendy's shareholders, paying them $32 for each share they owned. Since the book value of Wendy's is only $1,082,424,000, and McDonald's paid $3,347,200,000, McDonald's paid a premium of $2,264,776,000. This is going to go onto their balance sheet as Goodwill. It is required to be amortized against earnings for up to 40 years. This means that each year, 1/40 of the goodwill amount must be subtracted from McDonald's earnings so that by the 40th year, there is no goodwill left on the balance sheet. Now that McDonald's and Wendy's are one company, their earnings will be combined. Assuming next year's results were identical, the company would earn $2,146,948,000, or $1.66 per share1. Remember that goodwill must be amortized, meaning 1/40 the amount must be deducted from next year's earnings. McDonald's must deduct $56,619,400 from earnings next year as a charge against goodwill2. Now, McDonald's can only report earnings of $2,090,328,600, or $1.62 per share (compared to the $1.66 they would have been able to report before the goodwill charge). Goodwill reduced earnings by 4¢ per share. If the pooling of interest method had been used, no goodwill would have been created, and McDonald's would have reported EPS (earnings per share) of $1.66. Meaning that depending on how the accounting was handled, the exact same transaction could have two vastly different impacts on earnings per share.

Goodwill on the Balance Sheet Receives New Accounting Rules

It is no wonder that managements, in order to avoid this reduction in reportable earnings, frequently opted to use the pooling of interest method when they complete a merger. Since no goodwill is created, over-eager managers are able to pay outrageous prices for acquisitions with little or no accountability on the balance sheet. Since it makes no sense to have two different ways for accounting for a merger, the FASB (the folks in charge of coming up with these accounting rules) decided they should eliminate the pooling of interest method and force all transactions to be done via the purchase method. Executives and politicians claimed this will significantly reduce the number of mergers since the new standards would cause reportable earnings to drop as soon as a company had completed an acquisition. As a concession, the FASB will no longer require goodwill to be written off unless the assets became impaired (which means it becomes clear that the goodwill isn't worth what the company paid for it). Pay careful attention to the mergers a company has made in the past few years. Once you are able to value a business, you will want to look at recent acquisitions to determine if they were too expensive. If you find this to be the case, you will probably want to avoid the stock (why would you want to invest in a company that was throwing your money around?).
取自
http://beginnersinvest.about.com/od/analyzingabalancesheet/a/goodwill-on-the-balance-sheet.htm

整体来说,goodwill真的太抽象了,很难去衡量他的确实价钱。但这只是我的个人看法,可能是我太肤浅了。
欢迎大家分享自己的看法。

2010年8月6日星期五

MAP Tech 2010半年的财政报告

真的感到很奇怪,所以在次向MAP Tech的确认了有关财政报告的事项,终于拿到了2010半年的财政报告。

让我来分析一下(全属个人意见,如有偏差,将以MAP Tech发布的财政报告为准)

MAP TECH在第二季取得了美金40.502million的盈利,和上一季的42.189million的盈利减少了4%,但净利增加了7.87%,净利为美金3.245million,主要因为成本下跌(这是好事)。

PS:(不已09年比较,因为09年仍属于经济萧条时期,如果拿来比较,当然提升很多)

在到资产负债表的部分,短期流动现金流依然稳固,报美金82.103million,完全有能力应付短期和长期债务的总合美金53.496million。

需要注意的是长期借款多了2.105million,短期借款为9.032million。借款中的2.4million用于子公司厂房的租凭权和公司保障(corporate guarantee),8.4million着用于贸易融资用途和3.5million为定期存款。

至于现金流状况,这只是第二季的报表,我就不分析了,你们可以自己查看。

大致上来说没有太大的惊喜,至于公司在第二季仍能获取盈利也是预料中的事,关于股息方面也没有消息,但整体上还算满意。

小插曲-我也在今天以新币0.055的价位再买入40粒,也让我一共拥有200粒。

更多详情,你也能下载报表,我已经将它上载到以下网址

http://uploading.com/files/c96e2aca/MAP_Results_AnncQ2_2010.pdf/

PS: (报表暂时无法在其主页或sgx下载到,因为需等到sgx审核了才能在MAP Tech主页下载,我是以股东权利跟其财政部门先行索取)

还有我必须申明,我只是分享我的心得,并不是教唆任何人去买入,更没有资格去“教导任何人。不管以后是赚还是亏钱,是我跟着自己的分析入场,绝不后悔。

我并不是什么股场高手,也不是说我看中的股票马上会有很大的起伏。我只是希望在分享的同时,大家也愿意分享自己的意见和看法 ,互相学习。

如果之前的帖无意中开罪了任何人,我在这里向他说声对不起。

2010年8月5日星期四

7分努力,3分天命

匿名,我有看到你在论坛开的贴,很感谢您用我的博格与大家讨论,也很惊喜您会在我写这第二篇文章时就发现我了,或许是缘分吧。看你讯问大家意见的情况来看,你因该也留意这只股一段时间了吧,不然如果只因为我的一篇文章就进场,那“风险”也太大了吧。

我好像在自打嘴吧,一边大赞这只股很有潜能,一边告诉你“风险”很大?

其实我不是说买进MAP Tech,而是你的“态度”。当然我不是批评你,我也没有资格。只是觉得如果你不花点时间,下点功夫,却只是一味的因为一篇文章或一些所谓的小道消息,就进场,那就有很大的可能在股市里亏钱了。

我的标题,7分努力,其实就是在讲这个。当您决定买入一间公司股票的时候,第一件事就是看他的财务状况,也就是查看它的历年财务状况,先确定它的资金流动健康,有能力还清债务,之后就是看他的盈利和净利,才看它的财务规划和历年发放的股息。

然后就是它所经营的是否在未来几十几年里仍有潜力,最后再决定要不要买入,放长期还是短期。

至于3分天命,就是您无能为力的部分,好像天灾,金融风暴等等的因素。但其实只要做足那7分,你的风险已经大大减低了。

或许你去看看它的财务报告等等的资讯后,如果也觉得它有潜能,那就进场吧,不必问任何人,因为每个人的看法都有所不同。

回到正题,MAP Tech 回应我是告诉我报告会在今天闭市后公布,但我去了它的网站,却没有。

以下是他们给我的回复

“The results announcement this year will be slightly later and is scheduled for the 5th of August, after market close.

Do let me know if you have further queries. Thanks.”

也罢,反正也不会太久了,因为SGX规定“quarterly results announcement”要在quarter到期后45天内公布,也就是在8月中之前一定要公布了。

还有heigou兄和kenny兄,相信你们也是股场高手,小弟我期待你们的分享或批评指教。共勉之。

2010年8月4日星期三

看中的第一个小盘股 - 铭兴科技控股 (MAP TECH)

铭兴科技控股 (MAP Technology HLDGS Limited) 26 July 2007 在新加坡主板挂牌上市,IPO 价是新币0.32。

铭兴科技的主要业务是电子制造服务(EMS)方案,精密冲压和塑料注模为主。在经济大好的2007年和2008年头,净收分别是(以美金为单位)9.033million 和 8.880million,股息是美金0.0177。 股价更一度到接近0.7。

但当面对2008末的金融风暴时,它也不能幸免,制造服务和模切元件部门的收入下跌,再加上有关售卖M&J科技公司给Fujilink的事项,因Fujilink无法在预期的时间完成交易,造成终止交易,虽然MAP Tech以向Fujilink提出诉讼,追讨贸易欠债,但还是必须将M&J的亏损加进,因而面对22.024million 的净亏损。

其股价也从0.5++跌至0.2,并在 21 August 2009 发放附加股,让股价再跌到0.1. 在当时低迷的经济情况影响下,股价一度跌至0.045. 今日毕市股价为0.055.

看起来好像是只烂股,但真的是吗?

我从去年就开始注意这只股票,当时的股价已跌到0.075了,我才开始注意到这只股,开始观察它。我先查看了它的Jun 2009年的财务状况,现金流还算健康,流动资产是56.996million而短期负债是49.247million,就算加入长期负债也只是52.330million吧了,资金上完全可以应付。

之后我就开始注意它的动向,在09年12月曾提议在台湾上市,股价也微微上升了一些,但后来宣称台湾交易所以亏损而不被批准。但这只是小插曲罢了。

在它接下来的财务报表,虽然还在亏损,但我发现亏损有在缩小,这证明了它开始有在赚钱了。在年度报表里,发现它虽然结束了一些业务,但同时加入了一项项目就是塑料注模,而却还占了利润的13.9%,这是一个好的转变。

另外,台湾上市公司铭异科技拥有公司42.72%的股益,而却在MAP TECH发放附加股时,还表示将完全收购。这表示铭异科技也相信它能为公司带来回报。

终结种种因素
第一,附加股为MAP TECH集资14.6million,也给它具更大弹性来应付营运资本和并购商机。
第二,将可能在对Fujilink的诉讼中得到可观的赔偿。
第三,可能会再尝试在台湾上市。
第四, 经济复苏,在2010年第一季转亏为盈,收入提升了33%,净利为3.008million。
第五, 承诺如2010年经济有所好转,将再次发放股息

集合以上因素,我真的觉得可以买入,我也在0.060时买入了160 lot。MAP Tech将在明天(5 August 2010)发放2010年半年的财务报告,大家就拭目以待,看看我的“个人意见”是否正确。

2010年8月3日星期二

新加坡的小盘股

在茫茫股海里,找到尚未被发现,有极大潜能的小盘股,相信是所有股票投资者的梦想。
试想想,今天买进了一个几分钱的小盘股,一天一觉醒来,已经涨到几块钱甚至几十块,几百块,一夜致富或许已不再只是梦想。

想想当今股票市场上所谓的蓝筹股,几十年前,多数都是当年的小盘股,但经过几十年的磨练,洗礼,成了今日在交易所里赤手可热的蓝筹股,被不少的大小股民炒卖。

创业公司 (Venture Corp Ltd)23 April 1997 在新加坡主板上市,IPO的价钱只是新元0.40,很现在的 新元9.12(截至03 August 2010),在这13年里的起伏是8.72,翻了95倍,如果在当年买下一个lot,也就是400新元,今天您将能卖到新元9120,还不包括股息,而且9.12并不是巅峰价,它曾一度达到10多块钱。

丰益国际 (Wilmar International Ltd) 08 August 2006 以丰益国际在新加坡主板上市,IPO价是新币0.80,才短短4年的时间,现在每股价6.29 (截至03 August 2010),回报率是786% 而且还有很不错的上升势头。

回到今时今日的市场,到底还有没有这样有潜能的小盘股存在呢?我相信是有的,一定有。
这也是为什么我会建设这部落格的原因。我希望和大家分享我所知道一些看起来很有潜能的小盘股,同时希望大家也能分享你们认为很有潜能的小盘股,因为我知道上市公司真的太多了,终会有漏网之鱼的。

也希望集合大家的力量,能找到真真正正有潜力的小盘股。

资料取自 http://venture.listedcompany.com/faq.html 和 http://www.sgx.com